The period from 2021 to 2026 will witness significant changes in the scale and value of Vietnam's cashew exports. While in 2021, the country exported 609,259 tons of cashew kernels, earning $3.75 billion, by 2025, production had increased to 797,739 tons, reaching a record high of $5.43 billion. Thus, in just four years, cashew export volume increased by nearly 31%, while export value increased by nearly 45%. This difference shows that the average selling price has significantly contributed to the industry's growth. Despite being the world's largest exporter, why is Vietnam's cashew industry still facing price pressure? - Image 1. Cashew nuts bring in approximately $6 billion in export revenue, but raw material imports are also close to that figure. PHOTO: QUANG THUAN However, the development process was not continuous but went through many ups and downs. 2022 marked a sharp decline when exports reached only 519,029 tons, equivalent to 3.02 billion USD, a decrease of nearly 20% in value compared to the previous year. The average export price also decreased from 6,111 USD to 5,809 USD/ton. By 2023, the cashew industry began to recover in production, reaching 645,316 tons, an increase of more than 24% compared to 2022. However, the export value only reached 3.58 billion USD, still lower than the 2021 level. The reason is immediately reflected in the selling price: the average export price continued to fall to 5,566 USD/ton, the lowest in the 6-year data series. A turning point occurred in 2024 when exports increased to 765,368 tons, generating revenue of $4.6 billion, a more than 28% increase compared to 2023. Notably, the average export price recovered to nearly $6,000 per ton, marking a reversal after two consecutive years of decline. This growth momentum continued into 2025. Although export volume only increased by about 4.2%, revenue still rose by 18.1%, reaching $5.43 billion. The average export price surged to $6,818 per ton, nearly 14% higher than the previous year. This indicates a shift in growth dynamics. While previously the cashew industry primarily expanded its export value through increased production, in recent times, the selling price has become an increasingly important factor. This trend continued in the first nine months of 2026, when Vietnam exported 594,412 tons of cashew kernels, earning nearly $4.19 billion. The average export price reached approximately $7,016 per ton, the highest in the recorded data series. Despite being the world's largest exporter, why is Vietnam's cashew industry still facing price pressure? - Photo 2. In the first nine months, raw cashew imports exceeded exports. While the figures for the year may change, achieving a high trade surplus is unlikely. You may also like The cashew industry is focusing on deep processing. The cashew industry is focusing on deep processing. Cashew exports maintained their upward trend in value thanks to export prices and demand in major markets. However, according to Bach Khanh Nhut, Vice President of the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas), facing competitive pressure from emerging producing countries, Vietnamese businesses need to promote deep processing to increase added value. Vietnamese cashews maintain their number one position in the Canadian market. Vietnamese cashews maintain their number one position in the Canadian market. Vietnamese cashews accounted for 80.7% of Canada's total cashew imports in the first seven months of 2026, down from 83.6% in the same period of 2025. Overcoming obstacles, agricultural products aim for the $74 billion mark. Overcoming obstacles, agricultural products aim for the $74 billion mark. In the first seven months of 2026, Vietnam's exports of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products reached nearly $42.8 billion, an increase of 7.5% compared to the same period last year, further affirming their role as a pillar of the economy. PHOTO: QUANG THUAN If the average export rate of the first nine months of the year is maintained, the total export value for 2026 could reach approximately 5.59 billion USD, surpassing the record of 2025. However, in discussions with Thanh Nien newspaper, several cashew industry businesses stated that although export value has increased, the rising price of raw cashews and the increase in the price of exported cashew kernels have not kept pace, leading to a decrease in profit margins for businesses. Mr. Vu Thai Son, General Director of Long Son Joint Stock Company and Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association, commented : " Currently, Vietnam's cashew kernel export volume accounts for about 70% of the world 's export volume, meaning Vietnam can almost determine the selling price. However, the long-standing paradox is that Vietnamese businesses are being pressured on prices, leading to a slight increase in cashew kernel prices, resulting in relatively low profit margins. Many businesses even suffer losses because the purchase price of raw cashews is high while the selling price of cashew kernels doesn't balance with the price." According to the Vietnam Cashew Association, the current difficulty for the domestic cashew industry is that only about 15% of the raw materials are grown domestically, while the remaining 85% must be imported from Africa, Cambodia, and Indonesia . Africa has been promoting local production in recent years, and the amount of cashews imported to Vietnam is no longer as abundant as before. This leads to Vietnamese businesses competing to purchase enough raw materials for production, driving up prices and reducing business efficiency. Cambodia exported about 1.1 million tons of raw cashews to Vietnam this year; if they also implement policies to restrict raw material exports and prioritize local production, the domestic cashew industry will certainly face even greater difficulties. What does the future hold for Vietnam's cashew industry? Despite being the world's largest exporter, why is Vietnam's cashew industry still facing price pressure? - Photo 3. The cashew industry needs to compete by offering processed products instead of lowering export prices to attract customers. PHOTO: QUANG THUAN You may also like Is a cashew trade deficit unusual? Is a cashew trade deficit unusual? As of July, Vietnamese cashew businesses had spent over $3 billion importing raw cashews from abroad, while exporting nearly 373,800 tons of various types of cashews, earning nearly $2.63 billion. This has caused an imbalance in the import-export balance and the cashew industry has fallen into a state of "import surplus". Is this a cause for concern? Vietnam spends $3 billion importing cashew nuts, with nearly 1 million tons imported from Cambodia. Vietnam spends $3 billion importing cashew nuts, with nearly 1 million tons imported from Cambodia. In just the first six months of the year, Vietnamese businesses spent over $3 billion importing raw cashew nuts. Of that amount, nearly 1 million tons of cashew nuts came from Cambodia to Vietnam. China spends over half a billion USD to buy a type of seed from Vietnam. China spends over half a billion USD to buy a type of seed from Vietnam. Cashew exports in the first six months of the year reached over $2 billion, with China and the US remaining Vietnam's two largest customers. Looking at developments over the past six years, the outlook for Vietnam's cashew industry remains positive. Processing and export capacity has reached a large scale, export volume is maintained at hundreds of thousands of tons per year, and cashew kernel prices are recovering strongly. However, the biggest challenge in the coming period is not simply continuing to increase export turnover, but how to increase the real value it brings to the economy . The first challenge is raw materials. With raw cashew imports reaching approximately 3 million tons annually, Vietnam's cashew processing industry is significantly impacted by fluctuations in supply and prices in the international market. In particular, statistics show that the average import price of raw cashews increased sharply from 2024 to 2026. Meanwhile, the export price of cashew kernels, while increasing, did not rise proportionally. This development poses a risk of narrowing profit margins for businesses that do not effectively control input costs. The second challenge is capital efficiency. When raw material prices rise, businesses have to spend more money to maintain the same inventory levels. Meanwhile, processing, warehousing, and exporting always have a certain time lag. If the market reverses, businesses that buy raw materials at high prices may face significant risks. The third challenge lies in product structure. Cashew exports bring in a large amount of foreign currency, but to increase added value, the industry needs to develop more deeply processed products such as roasted cashews, flavored cashews, packaged foods, nutritional products, and Vietnamese branded goods. According to the leaders of the Vietnam Cashew Association, instead of competing solely on processing capacity and price, businesses need to focus on deeper involvement in the distribution system, brand building, and direct access to end consumers. Furthermore, developing domestic raw material areas remains a crucial direction, combined with increasing productivity, improving cashew quality, and strengthening linkages between businesses and farmers to help reduce the pressure of dependence on imports. After years of development, Vietnam's cashew industry is facing a crucial turning point: record export figures demonstrate a significant expansion in production, processing, and trade capacity. However, for sustainable development, the industry needs to shift its focus from scale growth to improving efficiency and added value. Therefore, the future of Vietnam's cashew industry lies not only in the question of how many billions of USD are exported annually, but more importantly, in how much value businesses, workers, and the Vietnamese economy actually retain after each billion USD of exports.