According to Euronews on June 2nd, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that El Niño is likely to return this summer, increasing the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and extreme rainfall globally, as climate change continues to raise global temperatures. WMO warns that the effects of El Niño could last until 2028. The effects of this El Niño event could last until 2028. Photo: VNA. According to the latest WMO forecast, the probability of El Niño forming this summer has reached 80%. Climate models show that this phenomenon will at least reach moderate intensity and potentially be strong, with a 90% chance of lasting until at least November. Some scientists warn that the impact of this El Niño could even extend into 2028. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world needs to consider this an urgent climate warning. He stated that El Niño will exacerbate the impacts of ongoing global warming. According to the WMO, El Niño is driven by the unusual warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters. This phenomenon is expected to cause above-average temperatures in almost every region of the world during the period from June to August. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said countries need to prepare for the possibility of a strong El Niño event, which could increase droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves both on land and at sea. In Europe, early signs have emerged as many areas of Western Europe recorded record-high spring temperatures last week due to the formation of a "heat dome." Scientists believe that similar heatwaves could become more frequent, longer-lasting, and more severe as El Niño fully develops. The most recent El Niño event in 2023-2024 is considered one of the five strongest ever recorded and contributed to making 2024 the hottest year in global climate observation history. The 2024 State of the European Climate Report by the Copernicus Climate Change Agency and the WMO shows that Europe will experience starkly contrasting weather conditions: the east facing prolonged heat and drought, while the west will experience heavy rainfall and flooding. The United Nations has warned that the impacts of this El Niño event could be more widespread, faster-paced, and affect more regions than previous cycles. The organization previously predicted an 86% chance that the world will continue to break the 2024 temperature records in the coming years. The WMO reported that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific region approached El Niño levels from late April to mid-May. Notably, subsurface temperatures in this area are currently more than 6 degrees Celsius higher than average, generating significant heat that further fuels ocean warming. El Niño phenomena typically occur in cycles of two to seven years and last for about 9-12 months. El Niño usually peaks at the end of its formation year and the beginning of the following year, while its impact on global temperatures is usually felt most acutely in the following year as the accumulated heat from the oceans continues to radiate into the atmosphere. According to WMO forecasts, rainfall in the coming months may be below average in South Asia, the Horn of Africa, and Central America. These are all regions heavily reliant on the monsoon season for agricultural production, increasing the risk of water shortages and reduced crop yields. The WMO emphasized that seasonal forecasts and early warning systems will play a crucial role in minimizing human and economic damage. The organization urged governments to promptly implement response measures and prepare for extreme weather scenarios in the future.