At the 43rd International Nuts and Dried Fruits Conference, organized by the International Nuts and Dried Fruits Council (INC) in Macau (China) from May 12-14, 2026, the Cashews Round Table presented a comprehensive overview of the global cashew industry: from production, processing, trade, consumer trends to market prospects in the US, Europe, the Middle East, and China. The most noteworthy point of the main report at this Round Table was not the individual production or export figures, but a strategic observation: “The global cashew industry is now very close to International Music Conference Inc. Macau, China 2026 Global Music Industry 2026-2027 Scale is on par with humans but still lacks a true conductor. the scale of the almond industry, but the entire industry has almost no unified global consumer promotion program like the California almond industry has done for decades.” Could this be the “growth potential” that will lead to further breakthroughs for the world cashew industry? The cashew industry's scale is approaching that of the almond industry. According to an INC report, global raw cashew production for the 2025/2026 season is projected to reach approximately 6.38 million tons. If converted using a kernel recovery rate of around 25-26.5%, the global cashew kernel production has already reached approximately 1.6 million tons – nearly equivalent to global shelled almond production. Meanwhile, the almond industry has built a very well-structured global marketing ecosystem, spearheaded by the California Almond Board – USA, with an annual advertising budget of approximately $80 million, of which about two-thirds is dedicated to "creating global consumer demand." In contrast, the global cashew industry is almost entirely "naturally growing": - It lacks a unified consumer promotion campaign, - It lacks a strong global positioning in nutrition, - It lacks a collective branding strategy, - It lacks a common marketing funding mechanism for the entire industry. This shows that the cashew industry still has enormous growth potential if a "Global Consumer Stimulus Program" similar to the almond industry can be established. Africa continues to be the global raw material supply hub. The report shows that West Africa remains the region that determines the global cashew supply. Ivory Coast alone continues to hold the position of the world's largest cashew producer with an estimated output of 1.4-1.5 million tons. However, it is noteworthy that Africa is no longer just a supplier of raw cashew nuts. Processing capacity in Africa has increased by more than 180% in recent years, from about 260,000 tons to over 729,000 tons. However, the report also points out an important fact: - Processing costs in Africa remain higher than in Vietnam and India, - Many processing models are heavily dependent on export incentive policies, and the reduction of export incentives in Ivory Coast is causing many businesses to reconsider their "pre-processing" strategies. One aspect that has not been thoroughly analyzed but is significantly impacting global cashew trade is the increasing differentiation in raw cashew quality between different origins. Existing issues such as: moisture content, shrinkage, defective product rate, broken kernels, storage conditions , and the stability of kernel recovery rates are becoming decisive factors in determining actual commercial value, rather than just looking at nominal harvest yields. Vietnam continues to dominate the cashew kernel market . The report reaffirms Vietnam's central role in the global cashew kernel supply chain. In 2025, Vietnam imported over 3.12 million tons of raw cashews and exported nearly 798,000 tons of cashew kernels. It remains the country with the largest processing capacity in the world. However, it is noteworthy that the report does not delve deeply into Vietnam's technological and automation advantages – a matter of great interest to many – factors that are becoming increasingly important in the context of: - Labor shortages, - Rising labor costs, - and increasingly fierce processing competition. Currently, Vietnamese businesses are focusing on upgrading systems such as: - Sorting using AI technology, - Sizing using optical technology, - Automated robotic cashew cutting and splitting, - Modern roasting and frying technology, - Production data traceability, which are helping many Vietnamese factories maintain a competitive advantage over emerging processing countries. In the long term, this could be a more important "economic moat" than economies of scale. Consumer demand continues to increase but is changing in structure. One of the overarching messages of the report is that global cashew demand remains relatively stable, especially in: - Europe, - the US, - China, - and India – the world's largest cashew consuming markets. The "healthy snacking" trend continues to be the biggest driver of the cashew industry. Consumers are increasingly interested in: - Plant-based protein, - Healthy fats, - Healthy snacks, - And convenience foods. However, the structure of demand is clearly changing. In Europe, the market is becoming more "value-driven": - Consumers are more price-sensitive, - Private label brands are growing rapidly, - Affordable mixed-nut products are developing faster than single premium cashew products. Meanwhile, in China, demand for cashews is shifting from holiday gift items to daily consumption as a health product. In particular, Generation Z in China is becoming a very important new consumer group, purchasing cashew nuts on average more than 3 times a month. Major risks have not been fully analyzed. Although the report is quite comprehensive, some strategic issues have not been addressed in depth. Firstly, there is the issue of logistics and shipping costs. Currently, shipping costs are no longer a "side cost," but have become an integral part of the cashew price. The Red Sea crisis, the Suez Canal crisis, rolling cargo, and war costs are directly affecting the cashew industry: - CIF price, - Capital turnover, - Delivery time, - and the profit margin of processors . Secondly, there is the issue of industry finance. The report talks a lot about production but does not clearly reflect the reality: - Low profit margins, - Interest rate pressure, - Cash flow, - Inventory, - and the "high-price but low-profit" cycle that many businesses are facing. Thirdly, there's ESG and traceability. In the next few years, requirements such as: - EU Deforestation-Free Regulation (EUDR), - Carbon footprint tracing, - Farm mapping certification, - Due diligence, - Traceability could become "licenses to enter the EU market." This will put immense pressure not only on Africa but also on processors and exporters in Asia. The next phase of cashew industry development: The most interesting aspect of the report is that it shows the cashew industry is entering a completely new phase. For many years, the cashew industry has mainly grown thanks to: - Population growth, - Increased income, - and the trend of consuming naturally sourced foods and snacks. But now, things have begun to change: - Direct competition with almonds, - Entry into the plant-based protein market, - Expansion into dairy alternatives, - Sports nutrition, - and functional foods. If the global cashew industry can: - Build a collective marketing strategy, - Position itself more strongly in the health sector, - Standardize quality, - and develop a global brand, then growth rates over the next 10 years could far surpass the past period. In other words, the cashew industry may have almost completed its "natural growth phase" and is now poised to enter a "strategically driven growth phase". (This article uses some information and data from the INC Congress in Macao (China) in May 2025 and from VINACAS, along with some subjective opinions of the author. The article is not intended for commercial purposes or to promote any specific product. This article is shared for VINACAS members' reference.)