For nearly 10 years, the United States has always been the number 1 market for the Vietnamese cashew industry, accounting for about 25-27% of the industry's total export turnover. However, in the first quarter of 2025, cashew exports to the United States decreased by 14.5% compared to the same period last year... According to statistics from the Customs Department (Ministry of Finance), in the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam's processed cashew nut exports reached 122.17 thousand tons, worth 839.06 million USD, down 19% in volume, but up 3.7% in value compared to the same period in 2024. Despite the decrease in volume, the average export price of Vietnam's processed cashew nuts was at 6,868 USD/ton, up 27.9% over the same period in 2024. USA, NETHERLANDS, CHINA ARE THE THREE LARGEST EXPORT MARKETS OF VIETNAM'S CASHEW INDUSTRY In the first quarter of 2025, the United States, the Netherlands and China were the three largest cashew nut consuming markets of Vietnam, accounting for 22.7%, 11.2% and 9.8% market shares respectively. Compared to the same period last year, the export value of cashew nuts to the US market decreased by 14.5%. Vietnam's cashew nut exports to China in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 25.6% in volume and 16% in value compared to the same period in 2024. In contrast, cashew exports to other markets such as the Netherlands and Japan recorded growth in the first quarter, reflecting the initial effective market diversification. Particularly impressive was the 43.5% increase in export value to the Netherlands. Although the first quarter of 2025 recorded a sharp decrease in export volume, experts and businesses in the industry believe that export activities will recover in the following quarters thanks to the new crop season and increased consumer demand. "The Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) sets a target of 4.5 billion USD in export turnover in 2025. To realize this goal, cashew processing enterprises need to focus on three pillars: improving product quality, diversifying markets and enhancing trade promotion." Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoa, Vice President of Vietnam Cashew Association. In the first quarter of 2025, the average export price of cashew nuts to all major export markets increased sharply compared to the same period in 2024, with an increase of 12.8 - 37.9%. Part of the reason comes from fluctuations in global cashew crop output, especially in Africa - a major source of raw materials but this year facing disadvantages in terms of climate and logistics. Looking back at 2024, Vietnam exported 730 thousand tons of processed cashew nuts, bringing in 4.37 billion USD, up 13.3% in volume and 20.2% in value compared to 2023. The average export price of Vietnam's cashew nuts reached about 6,003 USD/ton in 2024, up 6.1% compared to 2023. In terms of markets by country, the United States is the market with the largest proportion in the total volume and export turnover of Vietnam's cashews, with a value of more than 1.1 billion USD, accounting for 25.1%. China is in second place, with a value of 687.84 million USD. In addition, the Vietnamese cashew industry also exploits the EU market well, with exports to many member markets such as the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, etc. all growing. Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoa, Vice President of the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS), said that experts forecast that global cashew output in 2025 will increase by 10-15%, with total global output reaching nearly 6 million tons. However, due to increased output, raw cashew prices in Africa are on a downward trend. Meanwhile, the price of cashew nuts in the world market is still unstable, especially from May onwards, there may be strong fluctuations. Therefore, Mr. Hoa recommends that businesses should not rush to buy raw cashew nuts when the price is still high. Instead, they should carefully evaluate market factors and only buy when the price of raw cashew nuts is reasonable, to ensure profits during the production and trading process. VIETNAMESE CASHEW PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUBJECT TO HIGH US TAXES Although export turnover has decreased in the past few years, the United States is still the largest market for Vietnam's cashew processing industry, accounting for more than 25% of total cashew export turnover in 2024. However, from April 10, 2025, cashew exports to the United States will be subject to a 10% tax, and in the future, by July 2025, they may be subject to higher taxes. Because, in early April 2025, the United States unexpectedly imposed a very high reciprocal tax on Vietnamese goods, but then postponed the implementation of the reciprocal tax. However, Mr. Tran Van Hiep, Vice President of the Vietnam Cashew Association, commented: "Among more than 60 countries that Vietnam's cashew industry exports to, we assess that despite difficulties in tax issues, the United States will likely still be a large market with diverse needs. Therefore, we must try to maintain this market at all costs, and export as much as possible." Regarding cashew nuts, Mr. Hiep said that this item is unlikely to be subject to the highest tax rate, because cashew is not a product that has a direct impact on the economic security of the United States. However, with the minimum tax rate of 10% that the United States has begun to apply, it will still have a significant impact on the unit price of products, transportation costs and labor wages of cashew exporting enterprises. Stating the basis for predicting that Vietnamese cashews will not be subject to the highest tax rate by the United States, Mr. Tran Van Hiep said that the United States does not have cashew growing areas or large-scale cashew processing factories. Therefore, imported cashew products from Vietnam do not directly compete with the domestic production industry in the United States. Regarding the cashew trade situation in recent days, Mr. Hiep said that US buyers have responded to Vietnamese exporters. Specifically, for shipments that have been loaded on ships and are on their way to the US, they are committed to keeping the contract and continuing to import. However, after July 10, 2025, when the reciprocal tax suspension period ends, there will be many scenarios, at which time cashew export activities will certainly fluctuate. “For nearly 10 years, the US has always been the number one market for Vietnam’s cashew industry, accounting for about 25-27% of total export turnover. Next is China with 20% and the EU about 17-18%. If the US imposes high reciprocal tariffs on cashews, the volume of exports to this market will certainly decrease. In that case, the US may no longer be an attractive market for Vietnamese businesses." Mr. Tran Van Hiep, Vice President of Vietnam Cashew Association. “In addition to exporting to the US, our cashew exporting enterprises also sell to other markets. Obviously, the high tax imposition creates immediate difficulties, especially for enterprises that are closely tied to the US market, but this also opens up opportunities for us to expand and exploit new markets," Mr. Tran Van Hiep shared. According to Mr. Hiep, one of the most potential markets today is the Middle East. This is a region with increasing demand for cashew nuts. In the past 2 years, the Middle East has become a hot spot for the Vietnamese cashew industry, with strong growth. If we have a good approach strategy, we can completely offset the decline from the US market. Therefore, the cashew industry really wants to have stronger support from Vietnam's trade agencies, including: sending more trade counselors to the Middle East to update market information and import-export policies. Supporting businesses in finding partners and connecting trade. Sharing information on taxes and customs procedures so that businesses can be better prepared. "If we do these things well, I believe that the Vietnamese cashew industry can quickly adapt and thrive in the Middle East, instead of depending too much on the United States," Mr. Hiep hopes.