Since 2015, Côte d’Ivoire has led the world in cashew production, overtaking India. Cambodia, another rising Asian player, has rapidly expanded its cashew industry over the past decade but still trails behind. Cambodia’s cashew industry is growing fast, but experts say it will not dethrone Côte d’Ivoire anytime soon. Jim Fitzpatrick, a global cashew industry specialist, confirmed this in a recent interview with Agence Ecofin. The comment comes after the Cambodian Cashew Association (CAC) announced on May 31 its projected harvest of 900,000 tons of raw cashew nuts this season. The CAC aims to surpass the 1 million-ton mark within three to five years. Suy Kokthean, vice president of the CAC, emphasized that farmers have received unprecedented order volumes, fueling confidence that Cambodia is on track to become the world’s largest cashew producer in the near future. Fitzpatrick acknowledged Cambodia’s impressive growth—from 200,000 tons in 2018 to 840,000 tons in 2024—but he believes Côte d’Ivoire will keep its lead. He projects Côte d’Ivoire’s output to reach between 1.3 and 1.4 million tons by 2025. “The M23 variety, developed in Cambodia about ten years ago, transformed the cashew economy for farmers. It now covers roughly 80% of the 700,000 hectares planted. In 2024, the national average yield hit 1.4 tons per hectare. As trees mature, production will climb. We expect to reach one million tons by 2026 or 2027, weather permitting,” Fitzpatrick explained. Still, Fitzpatrick pointed to key structural differences between the two countries. “Cambodian farmers mostly practice monoculture and use far more inputs than Ivorian producers to boost yields. It’s a high-cost, high-yield model, as our 2024 EU and German CAPSAFE project study showed. While supply grows, new plantations slowed due to price drops between 2022 and 2024. Cambodia might hit one million tons if all goes well, but Côte d’Ivoire’s lead remains secure,” he concluded. Despite producing less, Cambodia enjoys an edge with Vietnamese buyers thanks to geographic proximity and an earlier harvest that reaches markets as early as March—before Côte d’Ivoire’s crop.