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  • Cashew exports are growing, expected to regain record levels

    May 8th, 2024

    According to data from the General Statistics Office, in the first 4 months of 2024, the total cashew nut export turnover is estimated to reach 1.16 billion USD, an increase of 21.82% over the same period last year. Vietnam's average cashew export price in March 2024 reached 5,354 USD/ton, up 0.3% compared to the previous month, but down 9.8% compared to March 2023.

    The Department of Import-Export (Import) - Ministry of Industry and Trade said that in March 2024, Vietnam's cashew exports to most traditional markets and positive growth potential compared to the same period last year, foreign except the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

    In the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam's average cashew export price reached 5,368 USD/ton, down 7.9% over the same period in 2023, most markets increased, except Saudi Arabia, In which some markets recorded a 3-digit increase, such as China, Russia...

    Vietnam's cashew exports reached a record level in value in 2021, with 3.63 billion USD. In 2022, cashew exports will decrease by 10.3% in volume and 15.1% in value, reaching 519,782 tons and 3.08 billion USD. In 2023, cashew export turnover increases by 18% compared to 2022, reaching 3.6 billion USD.

    Vietnam currently maintains the world's number one position in cashew export, accounting for more than 75% of cashew kernels exported globally and is a country that masters processing technology.

    The world demand for cashew nuts is increasing

    Mr. Ta Quang Huyen, Member of the Standing Committee of the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas), Director of Hoang Son 1 Company, said that cashew kernel exports in the first quarter of 2024 will grow strongly because the price of cashew kernels is too cheap, so World consumption growth is much better than before.

    Consumption of cashew kernels increased because consumers ate more cashew nuts and importers saw the cheap price of cashew kernels and were willing to buy them to increase inventory again.

    The Import-Export Department forecasts that Vietnam's cashew exports will increase in the months of the second quarter of 2024 thanks to increased world demand. In particular, consumption demand in the United States shows signs of recovery, and a sharp decrease in inventory will lead to increased imports.

    In Asia, the Chinese market especially favors Vietnamese cashews thanks to stable year-round supply and good product quality. In addition, the Asian region is not affected by the Red Sea conflict, which is a good condition for Vietnam's cashew exports.

    According to the Information Council of the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas), in April 2024, a number of processors signed contracts to export cashew kernels for long-distance delivery and are currently lacking raw cashew nuts for processing and are forced to buy raw cashew nuts with high price. Others wait to see how the cashew market is doing before buying more raw cashews. Because, they do not know whether the price of cashew kernels will increase or not while the price of raw cashew nuts is currently quite high, not in balance with the price of cashew kernels.

    “Demand for raw cashew nuts on the world market has increased since the end of March, prices have increased slightly although the average quality has decreased. Currently, the price of raw cashew nuts offered on the market has many different prices depending on the quality, reputation of the supplier and buyer, sales pressure... and the "fixed" price depends on the results of negotiations. judgment of the parties," said the representative of Vinacas Office.

    Large sized cashews increased  sharply  in the Chinese market

    Vietnam and Cambodia have entered their second harvest, the recovery rate is about 24-25% for small-sized seeds and 26-28% for large-sized seeds, the price increased by about 2,000 VND/kg due to the demand of farmers. processors are increasing.

    Meanwhile, West African raw cashew prices increased faster than cashew kernel prices. The demand for raw cashew nuts has increased, but the price of cashew kernels is currently not in balance with the price of raw cashew nuts.

    According to some industry experts, due to severe hot weather, the second and third crop yields of Cambodia and Vietnam may be lower, but the total output in 2024 will be equivalent to 2023.

    Besides, many raw cashew traders have announced that the amount of raw cashews arriving is very small; Output at IVC is 30% short. However, others believe that the crop may only be 5-10% short. In particular, the shortage in the market is partly due to speculation from farmers as well as some traders holding back goods, waiting for prices to rise before selling them.

    Analysts say that compared to a month ago, the price of cashew kernels increased by 10-12%, while the price of raw cashew nuts was offered an increase of 18%. In the current situation of fluctuating raw cashew and cashew kernel prices, to ensure no losses, processors need to be alert and use the sold cashew kernel price as a benchmark.

    Specifically, no matter how much the price of cashew kernels increases, it is acceptable to buy raw cashew nuts at that same increase in price. Currently, the demand for cashew nuts from the European market seems to be greater than the US market. Many cashew kernel buyers are monitoring the market because they already have a good amount of goods.

    Some businesses that do a lot of business with the Chinese market said that this year Chinese people bought a lot of large-sized cashew nuts, after cutting them, they brought them to China for roasting/peeling to avoid high taxes.

    The tax on whole-shell kernels crossing the border is only 2.36%, official imports via sea is 9% while the tax on roasted cashew kernels with shell is 13%.

    There is also a large FDI company that buys a lot of large size beads such as W180, W210, they buy them in PP bags, bring them to the bonded warehouse and pay within 5 working days, it is estimated that several hundred containers of W180 have been delivered. to bonded warehouses during the period from February to April.

    Currently, the consumption of large cashew nuts is increasing in China because the price is cheaper than some years ago.